Singapore: Today and a Vision for 2040

A Snapshot of Present-Day Singapore

Singapore is one of Asia’s most dynamic city-states highly globalised, trade-oriented, financially sophisticated, and with a strong institutional framework. 

Here are Some Key Data Points as of 2024–2025

• Population: As of June 2025, Singapore’s total population stood at about 6.11 million.  

• Of that, about 4.20 million are residents (citizens + permanent residents).  

• The remainder (1.91 million) are non-residents (foreign workforce, dependents, international students).  

• GDP (nominal): Singapore’s GDP in 2024 was about US$547 billion.  

• GDP growth 2024: Growth accelerated to about 4.4 % in 2024.  

• Current account surplus: According to the IMF Article IV summary for Singapore (2024), the current account surplus was about 17.5 % of GDP.  

• Economic structure: It remains a very open economy with strong services and finance sectors, high per-capita GDP (among the highest globally), and is deeply integrated into global trade.  

Singapore also continues to face structural challenges  an aging population, low fertility, strong dependence on external demand, and exposure to global supply-chain shifts and geopolitical uncertainty even as it has strengths in human capital, regulatory stability, and innovation readiness.

DBS’s Singapore 2040 Outlook

In late October 2025, DBS released a report (the Singapore 2040 report) projecting Singapore’s medium to long term economic trajectory. 

Key Takeaways:

GDP & Growth

• DBS forecasts that Singapore’s GDP will more than double by 2040, rising to between US$1.2 trillion and US$1.4 trillion.  

• This estimate assumes an average real GDP growth rate of 2.3 % per year from 2025 to 2040.  

• That implies a roughly 15-year compound growth that lifts output significantly despite Singapore already being a mature, high-income economy.  

Equity Markets & Currency

• DBS projects the Straits Times Index (STI) Singapore’s benchmark stock index could rise to nearly 10,000 points by 2040, if historical return patterns hold.  

• As of Oct 22, 2025, STI was about 4,393.92 points, up 16 % year to date.  

• To reach 10,000 from 4,400 over 15 years would require 127.6 % total gain (or average annual compound gains, depending on volatility).  

• DBS also forecasts that the Singapore dollar (SGD) could reach parity with the US dollar by 2040.  

• As of October 2025, one US dollar is about S$1.30.  

• That means SGD would need to appreciate 30 % versus USD over the 15-year period (or through gradual appreciation).  

Drivers & Assumptions

DBS identifies several key supporting factors for these projections

• Capital accumulation (investment in infrastructure, physical & digital infrastructure).  

• Human capital & productivity gains: reskilling, adoption of new technologies (including generative AI), deepening of talent pools.  

• Services dominance: financial services, digital & IT services, care economy expansion.  

• Manufacturing presence remains (electronics, precision engineering, chemicals / biomedicals), albeit likely more high-value tech-led.  

• Market & policy support: e.g. the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s equity-market-development programme (S$5 billion) to boost liquidity especially for small & mid-cap stocks; support for listing and capital-market deepening.  

• Safe haven inflows and Singapore’s appeal as a stable, institutionally strong financial centre in a world of geopolitical and trade-policy uncertainty.  

• A sustained current account surplus, supporting currency valuation strength. 

• DBS warns that for Singapore to reap fully from this potential, its culture especially around investment, risk-taking and listing of high-growth technology companies will need to evolve. Its market remains somewhat conservative and bank-heavy (financials are a large component of STI today), which may limit exposure to “transformative growth sectors”.  

Projected Population & Economic Scale in 2040

While the DBS report focuses more on GDP, currency, and capital markets rather than detailed population forecasts, we can sketch what Singapore might look like in 2040 by combining current trends with reasonable assumptions.

• Indicator Approximation / Projection for 2040*

• Population Singapore’s population growth has slowed and fertility is very low. 

• Some forecasts suggest modest increases rather than explosive growth. For example, external sources estimate Singapore’s population may rise only slowly (see Population Forecast 2050 estimates) perhaps stabilising in the 6.5 million range by 2040, depending on migration and policies.

• GDP (Nominal / Real) According to DBS, nominal GDP could reach US$1.2-1.4 trillion by 2040, more than doubling from its US$547 billion baseline.

• GDP per Capita, If population grows modestly while GDP doubles, per-capita GDP would rise significantly. For instance, with population of 6.5 million and GDP = US$1.3 trillion, per-capita GDP could approach US$200,000 (depending on exchange-rate effects, inflation, PPP adjustments) placing Singapore among the highest-income economies globally.

• Equity Market Scale STI reaching 10,000 implies very strong cumulative equity returns; combined with deeper capital markets, enhanced small-cap listing activity, and passive / institutional inflows.

Currency Strength If SGD / USD parity is achieved, that implies significant appreciation of SGD versus current exchange‐rate levels. That would boost real spending power abroad, influence trade competitiveness, and reflect investor confidence.

Role in Asia / Global Economy Singapore would remain a high-income, high-productivity hub , perhaps even more deeply integrated into tech, digital infrastructure, green transition supply chains, care economy and AI-enhanced services. It may serve as one of the premier financial-tech-hub bridges between Asia, established markets, and global capital flows.

Note: The population estimate is illustrative for more precise demographic forecasts you would need to consult official projections (e.g. Singapore Department of Statistics, or UN / local authority projections). DBS’s report does not publish detailed 2040 population figures in the sources cited above.

Risks, Challenges & What Could Upend the Forecast

Even if DBS’s outlook is optimistic, there are several risk factors that could slow or alter the trajectory

1. Demographics & Aging, low fertility means Singapore’s working-age population may shrink or age rapidly; dependency ratio could rise; pressures on healthcare, pension / social spending may intensify.

2. Global Uncertainty, trade tensions, supply-chain disruptions, geopolitical risk (e.g. shifts in supply of semiconductors, trade-war escalation).

3. Competition, other Asian hubs are upgrading; Singapore must keep pace in innovation, regulation, talent attraction, and cost competitiveness.

4. Climate / Environmental Constraints, land constraints, rising sea levels, need for sustainable infrastructure and green-transition costs.

5. Policy / Regulatory Constraints, constraints on immigration, housing policy, investment quotas, taxation, capital-market or listing regulation (especially for high-growth / tech companies).

6. Technology Risks & Opportunities, whether Singapore manages to attract and nurture high-growth technology firms (for listing locally) rather than have them list overseas; whether AI / automation create productivity enhancements or disintermediation of jobs; cybersecurity, regulation of data, etc.

But equally, Singapore has many strengths: institutional credibility, safety, rule of law, high education standards, fiscal prudence, strong global linkages, and an ability to pivot policy when needed.

Singapore is well-positioned to deliver significant growth from today into 2040 both in scale of its economy (GDP more than doubling), strength of its capital markets (STI potentially rising to almost 10,000), and even in currency valuation (SGD possibly reaching parity with the USD).

To realise that, policy, culture, capital-market deepening, and risk-taking behaviour (especially towards high-growth / tech sectors) will need to evolve. 

Demographic headwinds, global volatility, and competitive pressure will pose persistent challenges but with effective governance and innovation, Singapore’s 2040 could be one of its strongest decades yet.